Turning business questions into defensible recommendations.

Each case starts from a decision someone had to make, runs on real data with its cleaning documented step by step, and ends in recommendations that state their own limits. The full evidence — logs, notebooks, reconciliation counts — lives in each case's repository.

Selected work

3 cases

Private credit / small-business lending

Corrected for age, the 2023 vintage of US small-business loans is the worst since 2009

A loan book's charge-off rate lies when the vintages inside it are of different ages. The 2023 SBA vintage shows 3.5%, one of the best numbers in the programme's history; read at the same age as every other vintage it projects to 12.2%. At 36 months a vintage has realised only 23.5% of the losses it will suffer.

SQL
DuckDB
Python
matplotlib
1,697,539 loans · 35 vintages · 1991–2026

Football / sports finance

Football's transfer money is spreading out, not concentrating — and youth carries no premium

The industry treats both as settled: money pooling in fewer clubs, young players costing an ever-growing premium. Four transfer windows of deal-level data and a decade of FIFA's census contradict both. What is stable is who sells — 96 clubs were net sellers in all four seasons, where chance would have given 61.

SQL
DuckDB
Python
matplotlib
6,716 priced transfers · €37.4bn · 2 sources

Video games

On Steam, the cheapest price band has the worst reception across all 10 genres

Games priced under a real $3.25 systematically get the worst reception in their genre. The best reception sits at $6.46-$12.36 — never the cheapest, and not always the most expensive either. Based on that, I recommend concentrating due diligence on Adventure, Indie and Casual.

Python
pandas
matplotlib
125,855 games · 2 sources combined

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My risk bands changed every time I rebuilt the databaseThe query was correct and every number it produced was plausible. Half the rows still changed between two runs of the same pipeline over the same data — because of a tie-break I had not written.